By LAURA HAMMACK, guest columnist
I have recently had an opportunity to present in both a public meeting of the Brown County school board and before our school corporation employees about the need for our district to make some significant changes in our budget.
In this column, I have previously discussed the significant concerns that a declining school enrollment has on the general fund for a school district our size. These concerns have translated into a position where the school district is not collecting enough revenue to match the current expenditures.
During the opportunities where I have presented our current budget realities to both the community and our school employees, I have walked the audience through the “why” of the recommendations that we are in a position to make. Every recommendation that has been presented is based on data and evidence that has been studied over time. We have also conducted a forecasting process that is compelling for us to review.
I’d like to unpack several of these key data points with the community so that you understand why we are in a position where it is necessary to make modifications to our current 2017 budget and our expected 2018 budget.
We have spent a good amount of time studying the past 10 years of data to look for trends that may be evidenced over time. Unfortunately, our school district has witnessed a 10-year enrollment trend of consistent decline. In school year 2007-08, our student enrollment was 2,232. In 2016-17, our student enrollment is 1,866.
General fund dollars are received with two main factors as the indicators for revenue. First, the general fund is calculated by the number of students who are enrolled. Second, a factor called the complexity index is multiplied to calculate the sum.
In the past, the complexity index was determined by the percentage of students on free and reduced-price lunch. State legislators changed this determination, and now the complexity index is based on the number of students who receive SNAP and/or TANF benefits and/or are placed in foster care. The complexity index for Brown County Schools fell when this calculation changed. Therefore, we received less dollars for the number of students enrolled and less dollars for the complexity index formula.
We have studied the reasons that are contributing to our enrollment decline. First, the birth rate for Brown County is undergoing a steady decline. In 2004, the birth rate for Brown County was 157. In 2016, the birth rate for Brown County was 104. A regression formula indicates a continued downturn in births for Brown County into the future.
Second, the most important age cohorts for a school district to study are the number of children age 0 to 4, as this will forecast the number of students who enroll in kindergarten. We also need to study the number of adults age 20 to 44, those of traditional childbearing age.
Sadly, population has fallen for both of these age groups. From 2000 to 2015, the population of children 0-4 fell 26.2 percent and the 20-44 population fell 30.5 percent.
As compared with 2008-09, our total student population is down 366 students. With current enrollments for our K-to-4 school buildings being down a total of 190 students over the course of 10 years, this is remarkable considering our elementary schools are this size or smaller in total enrollment.
We conducted an analysis to forecast enrollments on a “most likely,” “high” and “low” forecast. The “most likely” scenario is based on residential and economic development remaining as it is, births continuing at the current rates (with only the usual variations) and current educational programs continuing as they are for the next several years.
The “most likely” enrollment forecast indicates that total enrollment for Brown County Schools in 2026-27 will be 1,556. This is a drop of 310 students from where we are now.
To illustrate this impact, in March 2016, our total tuition support payment (which indicates the revenue for the general fund) totaled $13,467,710. The March 2017 payment totaled $12,882,520. This is a difference of $585,190 that has already been realized.
In addition, we received disappointing news from the Statehouse that our forecast revenue for the biennium (2018 and 2019) is down another $631,862. This results in a known deficit of $1,217,052 if our enrollment trends continue.
Thankfully, the community voted for a referendum in May 2016 to support raises for certified and non-certified employees. The school district followed through on that promise and implemented raises for those identified employees.
We still have steps to take with our current salaries and rates of pay to become competitive with neighboring districts. In order to do this, we have to pull our budget in and continue to do the same until we can get this school district’s budget in a position where the revenue matches our expenditures.
In order to address our current budget realities, I made 16 recommendations to the board of school trustees that total nearly $1 million in budget cuts across the district.
In addition, I have been clear to indicate that for every position that becomes available in our district in the future, we will likely not fill the position through a strategy of budgeting that finds ongoing savings through attrition.
Currently, we have too many employees for the number of students we are serving.
The school board and I are committed to making this district financially sound. We are also committed to continue to provide world-class opportunities to the students and families we serve. Now that we know the data and have an insight into our financial forecast, we must make these decisions to secure the future of our school district.
I have offered an opportunity to sit down with anyone who would like to discuss our current realities in enrollment and how this translates to our general fund budget to anyone who is interested. Please call the office at 812-988-6601 to make an appointment. I will meet after work hours as well as on the weekend for anyone who would like to gain a better understanding of our situation.
I will be asking the Board of School Trustees for their approval of these recommendations during our next public meeting at 6:30 p.m. May 4 at Brown County High School, and you are invited, as always, to attend.
It is a shame that these sorts of conversations need to take place at a time when there are so many exciting events taking place across our school district.
We are committed to continuing to make each day a great one for our boys and girls even as this work is being conducted.
Our school district is a great one, and I assure you that we will get ourselves to a position of being financially strong.
Laura Hammack is superintendent of Brown County schools. She can be reached at 812-988-6601 or [email protected].
